Tropical Cyclone Activity

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 241720
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 24 Jul 2017 20:33:26 GMT
RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241720
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 24 Jul 2017 20:33:26 GMT

Eastern Pacific



 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Greg, located more than 1500 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, on Hurricane Hilary,
located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo Mexico, and on
Tropical Storm Irwin, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of
Mexico in a couple of days. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds from
Hurricane Hilary. The system is forecast to move west-
northwestward at about 5 to 10 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Greg (EP2/EP072017)
    ...GREG EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 the center of Greg was located near 14.6, -133.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Greg

  • Tropical Storm Greg Public Advisory Number 29
    Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 241435 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...GREG EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 133.2W ABOUT 1515 MI...2440 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII ABOUT 1625 MI...2615 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 133.2 West. Greg is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Greg is expected to become a tropical depression by early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Advisory Number 29
    Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 241434 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 133.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 133.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 132.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.1N 134.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.9N 135.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.7N 137.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.3N 138.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.4N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 133.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 29
    Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241436 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Greg's convective structure is gradually deteriorating, likely due to very dry air in the surrounding atmosphere. However, the initial intensity remains 40 kt on this advisory, primarily since subjective and objective final-T numbers still range between T2.0 and T3.0. Along with the dry environment, deep-layer vertical shear is expected to turn out of the west and increase in 36-48 hours, and Greg will be moving over marginally warm waters of around 26 deg C. Therefore, gradual weakening is anticipated, and Greg will likely be a tropical depression in about 48 hours and then a remnant low by day 3. This forecast is just an update of the previous one and is very close to the ICON intensity consensus. Based on the latest center fixes, Greg's motion has been oscillating between westward and west-northwestward, and the 12-hour motion estimate is 280/10 kt. A more definitive west-northwestward motion is likely to begin soon and continue for the next 48 hours as the ridge axis to Greg's north changes from a north-south orientation to a more east-west orientation. After 48 hours, the remnant low of Greg should then be steered westward and west-southwestward by the lower-level trade winds. The track guidance envelope shifted northeastward between 12-48 hours on this cycle, and as a result the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction during that period. Otherwise, there are no significant changes from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.6N 133.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.1N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.9N 135.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.7N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.3N 138.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 17.4N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Greg Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
    Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 241435 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072017 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 24 8(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 135W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Greg Graphics
    Tropical Storm Greg 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 14:40:45 GMT

    Tropical Storm Greg 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 15:26:19 GMT ]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane HILARY (EP4/EP092017)
    ...HILARY FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 the center of HILARY was located near 14.1, -104.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane HILARY

  • Hurricane HILARY Public Advisory Number 13
    Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 241441 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...HILARY FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 104.2W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 104.2 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilary is likely to become a major hurricane on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Hurricane HILARY Forecast Advisory Number 14
    Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 104.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.9N 106.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 18.7N 119.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 104.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN ]]>
  • Hurricane HILARY Forecast Discussion Number 13
    Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 241443 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Satellite images indicate that Hilary has a small central core of convection, with both the visible and infrared channels suggesting that an eye is trying to form. Microwave data also show an incomplete eyewall, though the system is so small that most sensors don't have the necessary resolution to really see the center. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt, a bit above the satellite fixes given the recent upward organization trend. Interestingly, despite the hurricane having intensified about 30 kt in the past 24 hours, model guidance this morning really backed off on the future strengthening of Hilary, with most guidance no longer showing it becoming a major hurricane. It is difficult to believe the new model runs because the environment seems similarly favorable for at least the next day or so, with perhaps some increase in northerly shear in about 48 hours. For now, the latest NHC forecast is reduced just a little bit beyond 24 hours, owing to the possible increase in shear, but still lies at or above all of the guidance. The initial motion estimate is 295/7. A ridge that extends into the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States is forecast to strengthen slightly over the next couple of days, which should steer Hilary a bit faster to the west-northwest during that time. The long-range forecast is a mess with the likelihood of some binary interaction with TS Irwin, leading to a large model spread by day 5. Dynamical guidance has been trending toward more interaction, although the GFS/HMON models are well off to the northeast of the rest of the guidance. The NHC prediction is close to the previous one, putting a little more weight on the binary interaction solutions, which results in a small westward shift of the forecast at long range. Obviously this type of forecast has large uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 104.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.6N 105.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.2N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 15.9N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 16.5N 110.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 17.7N 114.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 18.7N 118.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Hurricane HILARY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
    Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 241441 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 105W 50 38 4(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 15N 105W 64 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 41(43) 24(67) 3(70) X(70) X(70) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 18(42) 2(44) X(44) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 60(65) 11(76) 1(77) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 9(44) 1(45) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 7(27) 1(28) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 7(30) 1(31) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 15(48) 3(51) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) 1(19) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 12(45) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Hurricane HILARY Graphics
    Hurricane HILARY 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 14:47:01 GMT

    Hurricane HILARY 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 15:34:20 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
    ...IRWIN STILL STRENGTHENING... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 the center of Irwin was located near 15.0, -117.8 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Irwin

  • Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 10
    Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 242032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ...IRWIN STILL STRENGTHENING... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 117.8W ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 117.8 West. Irwin is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slow westward motion is expected through Tuesday night. A turn toward the west-southwest is forecast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Irwin is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 10
    Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 242032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 117.8W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 117.8W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.2N 118.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.2N 119.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.1N 120.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.8N 121.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.2N 122.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 15.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 17.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 10
    Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Irwin has been displaying a dimple in visible satellite imagery, which appears to coincide with a mid-level eye that has been apparent in recent microwave imagery. However, the microwave data also suggest that Irwin's circulation is tilted from south to north with height, with the low-level center located south of the feature noted in visible imagery. Subjective Dvorak estimates have risen to T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB, while the objective ADT is still down around T3.1/47 kt. Given the cyclone's tilted structure, I'm comfortable going down the middle and initializing the intensity at 55 kt. Vertical shear is currently low over Irwin and should remain so for the next 24 hours or so. This will likely allow Irwin to continue strengthening, reaching hurricane status overnight. Increased shear, possibly enhanced by Hilary's outflow, could begin to impinge on Irwin after 24 hours, which would likely limit the intensification trend. The new intensity guidance has come down a bit after 24 hours, and only gradual weakening is anticipated through the end of the forecast period as Irwin and Hilary interact. Irwin will also be approaching the 26 deg C SST isotherm in about 5 days, which will also foster some weakening. The updated NHC forecast is close to the HCCA guidance, and it's just slightly below the previous forecast from 36 hours and beyond. Irwin's is drifting westward with an initial motion of 280/3 kt. As Irwin and Hilary's circulations get closer together over the next few days, Irwin will respond by first moving slowly west-southwestward on days 2 and 3, and then turning northwestward and accelerating behind or around the southeast side of Hilary's circulation. The regional HWRF and HMON models continue to show a persistent westward track that ignores Hilary's existence, while the global models show varying degrees of interaction between the two cyclones. Because of the unrealistic scenarios shown by the regional models, the NHC track forecast continues to lie east of the multi-model consensus on days 4 and 5, and it's very close to HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.0N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 15.2N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 15.2N 119.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 15.1N 120.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 14.8N 121.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 14.2N 122.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 15.0N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 17.5N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
    Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 242032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 15N 120W 34 2 59(61) 30(91) 2(93) 1(94) 1(95) X(95) 15N 120W 50 X 12(12) 40(52) 6(58) 1(59) X(59) 1(60) 15N 120W 64 X 3( 3) 23(26) 3(29) X(29) 1(30) X(30) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 16(22) 16(38) 5(43) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
    Tropical Storm Irwin 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 15:03:42 GMT

    Tropical Storm Irwin 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 15:42:35 GMT ]]>


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