Tropical Cyclone Activity

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop


Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 250538
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
    ...LEE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 25 the center of Lee was located near 31.1, -49.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Lee

  • Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 29
    Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250853 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 ...LEE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 49.4W ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 49.4 West. Lee is stationary, but a slow west-southwest to west motion is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Lee is a tiny hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 29
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250852 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 49.4W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 49.4W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 49.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.9N 49.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.7N 50.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.8N 52.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.2N 53.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.7N 54.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 36.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 42.5N 42.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 29
    Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250854 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017 Lee continues to hold steady in intensity. The 10 n mi eye of the hurricane remains quite distinct, and although the convective pattern around the eye is fairly symmetric, the cloud tops are not very cold. Since the Dvorak classifications remain the same as earlier, the initial intensity is again held at 80 kt based on a blend of the subjective and objective numbers. It is interesting to note that Lee remains a very compact hurricane, with tropical-storm-force winds extending only 30 n mi from the center. Lee remains in a favorable upper-level wind pattern for strengthening, but SSTs beneath the cyclone are marginal, in part due to the hurricane moving over its own cool wake. Lee is expected to move over slightly warmer waters in a day or so, and that could allow the system to strengthen a little. Later in the forecast period, drier air, a sharp increase in shear, and a track toward colder water should cause weakening. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement with the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. The trough that had been steering Lee to the east or southeast much of the day on Sunday has now bypassed the system leaving Lee in weak steering currents. A ridge is expected to build to the north of the hurricane by tonight, and that should cause the system to begin moving west-southwestward or westward. By mid-week, a trough is expected to approach the hurricane, and it should cause the system to accelerate to the northeast over the central Atlantic in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the west of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 31.1N 49.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 30.9N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 30.7N 50.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 30.8N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 31.2N 53.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 32.7N 54.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 36.5N 51.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 42.5N 42.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 250853 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Graphics
    Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:03:40 GMT

    Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:22:09 GMT ]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
    ...MARIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 the center of Maria was located near 30.6, -73.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Maria

  • Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 37
    Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250848 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 ...MARIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 73.0W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border * North of Surf City to south of Cape Lookout A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday night. Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter data is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL...Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 37
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250847 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DUCK TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 73.0W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 330SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 73.0W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.4N 73.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N 73.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N 73.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.3N 73.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 37.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 40.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 73.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 37
    Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250851 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 A combination of conventional satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria is weakening and undergoing major changes in structure as it encounters the cool water left by Hurricane Jose. Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center has become exposed to the northwest of the remaining central convection, with some outer convective banding remaining mainly in the eastern semicircle. The scatterometer and aircraft data suggests that the inner wind core has collapsed, with no hurricane force winds occurring in the western semicircle. Based on the combination of these data, the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 70 kt, and the initial and forecast wind radii have been significantly changed. The initial motion is 355/6. Maria is being steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level cyclone over the southeastern U.S. and the subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. A mid-level ridge moving eastward across the northeastern U.S. will likely cause Maria's forward motion to slow some more over the next couple of days. After that time, the mid-latitude westerlies are expected to encroach on Maria, causing it to turn sharply to the east- northeast and accelerate. The guidance is in good agreement on this track scenario, and the new forecast track, which lies between the ECMWF and the various consensus models, is an update of the previous forecast. The environment of cool sea surface temperatures and moderate shear should keep Maria weakening. However, it unclear just how fast it will weaken, as the guidance has been generally forecasting a slower weakening than has actually occurred. The new intensity forecast will follow the trend of the guidance and the previous forecast of a gradual weakening, with Maria now forecast to weaken below hurricane status after 36 h. However, an alternate scenario is that the cyclone continues weakening at a faster rate and thus winds up weaker than the new intensity forecast. Maria is a large cyclone, so even if it weakens to a tropical storm and remains well offshore it is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the North Carolina coast during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the coast of North Carolina. 2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North Carolina Outer Banks. 3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid- Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of the week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 30.6N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 31.4N 73.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 32.5N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 33.5N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 34.3N 73.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 35.5N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 37.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 40.0N 56.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 250849 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 9(18) 1(19) X(19) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) NORFOLK VA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 9(23) 1(24) X(24) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) 10(26) 1(27) X(27) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 7(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 9(13) 17(30) 12(42) 10(52) 1(53) X(53) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 5( 8) 8(16) 7(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) NEW RIVER NC 34 4 7(11) 12(23) 8(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 4 5( 9) 11(20) 7(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) SURF CITY NC 34 3 4( 7) 7(14) 4(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) WILMINGTON NC 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 4(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Graphics
    Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 08:57:21 GMT

    Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:28:31 GMT ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
    Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
    Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:14:19 GMT ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
    Hurricane Maria Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
    Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:32:07 GMT ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
    Hurricane Maria Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
    Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 08:51:31 GMT ]]>

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA
Issued at  529 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC
Issued at  537 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017
RSS Tropical Cyclone Advisories from NHC

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 250538
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)

...LEE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 25
 the center of Lee was located near 31.1, -49.4
 with movement Stationary.
 The minimum central pressure was 980 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 29

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 250853
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

...LEE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 49.4W
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 49.4 West.  Lee is stationary,
but a slow west-southwest to west motion is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Lee is a tiny hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to
10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 29

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 250852
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  49.4W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  49.4W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  49.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.9N  49.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.7N  50.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.8N  52.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.2N  53.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.7N  54.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 36.5N  51.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 42.5N  42.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N  49.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 29

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 250854
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

Lee continues to hold steady in intensity.  The 10 n mi eye of the
hurricane remains quite distinct, and although the convective
pattern around the eye is fairly symmetric, the cloud tops are not
very cold.  Since the Dvorak classifications remain the same as
earlier, the initial intensity is again held at 80 kt based on a
blend of the subjective and objective numbers.  It is interesting
to note that Lee remains a very compact hurricane, with
tropical-storm-force winds extending only 30 n mi from the center.

Lee remains in a favorable upper-level wind pattern for
strengthening, but SSTs beneath the cyclone are marginal, in part
due to the hurricane moving over its own cool wake.  Lee is expected
to move over slightly warmer waters in a day or so, and that could
allow the system to strengthen a little.  Later in the forecast
period, drier air, a sharp increase in shear, and a track toward
colder water should cause weakening.  Only minor changes were made
to the previous NHC intensity forecast, and this prediction is in
best agreement with the consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

The trough that had been steering Lee to the east or southeast much
of the day on Sunday has now bypassed the system leaving Lee in
weak steering currents.  A ridge is expected to build to the north
of the hurricane by tonight, and that should cause the system to
begin moving west-southwestward or westward.  By mid-week, a
trough is expected to approach the hurricane, and it should
cause the system to accelerate to the northeast over the central
Atlantic in 4 to 5 days.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the west of the previous one to come into better agreement with
the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 31.1N  49.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 30.9N  49.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 30.7N  50.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 30.8N  52.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 31.2N  53.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 32.7N  54.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 36.5N  51.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 42.5N  42.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 250853
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Hurricane Lee Graphics

Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:03:40 GMT

Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:22:09 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...MARIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
 As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 25
 the center of Maria was located near 30.6, -73.0
 with movement N at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 957 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 37

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250848
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 73.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the North Carolina
coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, including the Albemarle and Pamlico
Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* North of Surf City to south of Cape Lookout

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
should monitor the progress of Maria.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night.
On the forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of the
southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Maria is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday
night.

Maria is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the east of the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area beginning Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL...Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast today.  Swells also continue
to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 37

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 250847
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  73.0W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  73.0W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  73.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.4N  73.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N  73.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N  73.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.3N  73.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.5N  72.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 37.0N  66.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 40.0N  56.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N  73.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 37

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 250851
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

A combination of conventional satellite imagery, scatterometer
data, and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Maria is weakening and undergoing major changes in structure as
it encounters the cool water left by Hurricane Jose.  Satellite
imagery shows that the low-level center has become exposed to the
northwest of the remaining central convection, with some outer
convective banding remaining mainly in the eastern semicircle.  The
scatterometer and aircraft data suggests that the inner wind core
has collapsed, with no hurricane force winds occurring in the
western semicircle.  Based on the combination of these data, the
initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 70 kt, and the
initial and forecast wind radii have been significantly changed.

The initial motion is 355/6.  Maria is being steered by the flow
between a mid- to upper-level cyclone over the southeastern U.S. and
the subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic.  A mid-level
ridge moving eastward across the northeastern U.S. will likely cause
Maria's forward motion to slow some more over the next couple of
days.  After that time, the mid-latitude westerlies are expected to
encroach on Maria, causing it to turn sharply to the east-
northeast and accelerate. The guidance is in good agreement on this
track scenario, and the new forecast track, which lies between the
ECMWF and the various consensus models, is an update of the
previous forecast.

The environment of cool sea surface temperatures and moderate shear
should keep Maria weakening.  However, it unclear just how fast it
will weaken, as the guidance has been generally forecasting a slower
weakening than has actually occurred.  The new intensity forecast
will follow the trend of the guidance and the previous forecast of
a gradual weakening, with Maria now forecast to weaken below
hurricane status after 36 h.  However, an alternate scenario is
that the cyclone continues weakening at a faster rate and thus
winds up weaker than the new intensity forecast.

Maria is a large cyclone, so even if it weakens to a tropical storm
and remains well offshore it is expected to bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the North Carolina coast during the next
couple of days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday.  A Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the coast of North
Carolina.

2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North
Carolina Outer Banks.

3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-
Atlantic coast today.  These swells will likely cause dangerous surf
and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of the
week. For more information, please monitor information from your
local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 30.6N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 31.4N  73.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 32.5N  73.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 33.5N  73.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 34.3N  73.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 35.5N  72.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 37.0N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 40.0N  56.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 250849
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   2(13)   X(13)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   8(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   9(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)   8(21)   1(22)   X(22)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   5(14)   9(23)   1(24)   X(24)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   3( 3)   8(11)   5(16)  10(26)   1(27)   X(27)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   6( 6)   7(13)   7(20)  10(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  4   9(13)  17(30)  12(42)  10(52)   1(53)   X(53)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  3   5( 8)   8(16)   7(23)   6(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  4   7(11)  12(23)   8(31)   7(38)   1(39)   X(39)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  4   5( 9)  11(20)   7(27)   6(33)   1(34)   X(34)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  3   4( 7)   7(14)   4(18)   4(22)   1(23)   X(23)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  2   5( 7)   5(12)   4(16)   3(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  3   4( 7)   5(12)   3(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Maria Graphics

Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 08:57:21 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:28:31 GMT

Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:14:19 GMT

Hurricane Maria Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Hurricane Maria Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:32:07 GMT

Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Hurricane Maria Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 08:51:31 GMT

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at  529 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at  537 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250537
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 24 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Pilar, located near the west coast of Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure located about 100 miles south of the
border of Guatemala and Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days while it meanders just off
the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Pilar (EP3/EP182017)
    ...PILAR IS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 the center of Pilar was located near 22.2, -106.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Pilar

  • Tropical Storm Pilar Public Advisory Number 7
    Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 250856 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 ...PILAR IS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 106.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes northward to Bahia Tempehuaya, including Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 106.6 West. Pilar is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Pilar is forecast to move along or just west of the coast of the Mexican states of Nayarit and Sinaloa until it dissipates in a day or so. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Pilar is expected to become a tropical depression later today and dissipate by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over the western portions of the Mexican states of Nayarit, southern Sinaloa, and southwestern Durango through Tuesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in a portion of the warning area. These conditions are expected to diminish later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Advisory Number 7
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 250855 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA...INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 106.6W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 106.6W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.8N 106.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.6N 107.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 106.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 7
    Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250857 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Although Pilar continues to produce an area of deep convection, surface observations and satellite data indicate that the circulation of the storm is losing definition. In fact, recent ASCAT data suggest that Pilar could already be an open trough. However, we prefer to keep issuing advisories until more confirmation on the structure of the system is available. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Pilar is very near the west coast of Mexico and it is expected to move along or just off the coast during the next day or two. The interaction with land combined with a significant increase in southwesterly shear should cause the cyclone to weaken to a tropical depression later today, and dissipate within the next 24 to 36 hours. Since Pilar lacks a clear center, the initial motion of 340/8 kt is uncertain. A slower north-northwest motion in the low- to mid-level flow is expected until the system dissipates. This track forecast lies closest to the latest GFS model run. The main hazard associated with Pilar is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, over the states of Nayarit, the southern portion of Sinaloa, and the southwestern portion of Durango during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 22.2N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.8N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 23.6N 107.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250856 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 0900 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CULIACAN 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 16 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Graphics
    Tropical Storm Pilar 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:02:02 GMT

    Tropical Storm Pilar 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:34:27 GMT ]]>


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