642
FXUS61 KBOX 141135
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
735 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance brings clouds and periods of rain
tonight into the first half of Saturday. Precipitation gradually
winds down Saturday afternoon with drier northwest flow aloft. An
onshore flow and low stratus keeps temperatures well below average
through Sunday.  Drier conditions return Sunday but still cool,
then a warming trend begins Monday with a return to summer like
temperatures by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Clouds lower and thicken from W to E as a weak disturbance
  approaches from the west.

Today:

A weak mid-level shortwave will be responsible for yet another
unsettled Saturday in southern New England. Showers have already
spread across MA, mainly northern MA so far. This isn`t a
strongly forced system, so despite having sufficient moisture
there isn`t enough lift/instability to support heavy rainfall.
Expect periods of showers to continue through the morning,
filling in further south as the early morning progresses. The
general trend shown by the suite of high-res guidance is the
bulk of showers shifting south further into RI and SE MA early
afternoon as a surface high nudges in. This should help initiate
a gradual drying trend. Amounts will likely range in the
0.15-0.40" range. Temperatures will be below normal for this
time of year with highs in the low to mid 60s. Offshore flow
will keep it in the low 60s in the coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Few showers possible early evening across the south coast,
  otherwise dry overnight.

Tonight and Sunday:

Surface high pressure remains offshore overnight keeping
conditions dry overnight with light NE winds. Temperatures drop
into the low to mid 50s.

Dry conditions are expected Sunday while still under the
influence of the surface high. It will be another cool day with
cool temperatures aloft and mainly cloudy skies. A weak wave
moves across Sunday night. Battling the drier air shower chances
will be low as well as coverage of showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points

 * Warming trend Mon - Wed

 * Hot and humid Thursday with potential for Thunderstorms

Surface flow turns more southerly on Monday in response to high
pressure moving further offshore and developing low south of Long
Island. This low should be far enough south to keep the region dry,
but perhaps a few showers could reach the south coast. Temperatures
begin to rebound, reaching the low to mid-70s. Temperatures are
expected to continue warming on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in
the mid-70s to low 80s. Precipitation chances are uncertain by
midweek as some global models attempt to develop another weak
surface low near Long Island. This system lacks strong upper-level
support, so the most likely scenario is a few diurnal showers rather
than a washout. Guidance comes back into better agreement towards
the end of the week as a stronger shortwave exits the Great Lakes.
This could become the focus for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. The GFS and EURO indicate that upwards of 1000-2000
J/kg of instability is available on Thursday afternoon, which could
lead to severe thunderstorms, depending on the timing of the leading
cold front. With continued strong southerly flow, temperatures could
warm to near 90F by Thursday, with dewpoints in the mid-60s.
Temperatures cool a bit behind the cold front on Friday, dropping
back down to the low 80s with Dewpoints in the upper 50s.

Looking way ahead to next weekend, there appears to be some hope
that we will finally break out of the wet weekend trend as the GFS
has a dry airmass following behind the shortwave from
Thursday/Friday. However, the Euro and Canadian have another
trailing shortwave, which would lead to another wet weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Saturday...Moderate confidence.

MVFR with light rain showers in the morning, drying up in the
afternoon with the exception of the Cape and Islands where rain
will last into the afternoon. Potential for IFR in areas by the afternoon,
but now lower confidence based on current ceiling trends this
morning. Likely a result of the drier air with the high
pressure.

Saturday Night...Moderate Confidence

MVFR/VFR. Light NE winds.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Rain showers through early afternoon. CIGS should stay MVFR
despite the onshore flow as high pressure to the north brings in
drier air. Confidence lower on ceiling trends this evening
(improvements to VFR vs staying MVFR overnight).

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Off and on showers through 15z, although
could linger through 17z. Lower confidence on ceilings,but
should stay between MVFR and VFR.

Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.

Monday Night through Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, isolated TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Saturday...

E-NE winds speeds below 25 kt and most of the day today with
seas less than 5 ft. Periods of showers expected today over
south coastal waters. There may be a period after 20Z today
where conditions across the southern outer waters approach SCA
criteria with winds around 25 kts and brief 3-5 ft seas. This
potential will last through 06Z. Seas and winds trend downward
into early Sunday morning.

Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Mensch/KP
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...Mensch/KP
MARINE...Belk/Mensch/KP